Even in July-2022, FED may increase interest rate by 50 bps or 75 bps and recession either in 2022 or 2023 is inevitable in 2022 or 2023 in USA.
USA economy can influence almost all global markets as most of global markets are related to USA market.
To control high inflation in USA, FED is increasing interest rates aggressively.
So companies who wants to expand their businesses by depending upon debt will try to control the spend and even cut down their existing businesses if it is not profitable.
So even unemployment rate will increase a bit.
In June-2022, FED increased interest rate by 75 bps and it is highest since 1994. FED is very aggressive to control inflation.
There is high possibility that recession will occur either in 2022 or 2023 in USA.
Recession means if there negative GDP growth for 2 quarters then we will be calling it as recession.
FED aggressive interest rates will lead to recession in USA.
However long term investors can invest in index stocks who can invest till end of 2024.
Bull market may be back either in second half of 2023 or first half of 2024 where FED will start to reduce interest rates.
Interest Rate hikes increase and Interest Rates decrease
Economic GDP growth and Economic GDP shrinkage
are cycles that will be repeated.